US and core Europe offshore wind markets face downward adjustments, while Poland and Asian markets bolster outlook until 2040
Aegir Insights has released the H2 2025 Global Market Forecast update to subscribing clients, looking at the annual offshore wind build-out based on in-depth analysis of individual projects and markets, as well as regional and global factors related to supply-chain development, routes to market, grid infrastructure development, and more.
A few key takeaways:
🔹 Despite recent delays and ongoing challenges in the offshore wind sector, our forecast towards 2030 has remained relatively stable since last forecasting period, while postponement of volumes has led to reduction towards 2040.
🔹 The main changes in this Global Market Forecast H2 2025 update are reductions in the expected build-out due to a series of delayed and cancelled projects and auctions, including Hornsea 4 in the UK, Mitsubishi's project portfolio in Japan and Zeewonk in the Netherlands, as well as failed auctions in Germany, Denmark and India and the negative developments under President Trump in the US.
🔹 Based on common challenges across markets, Aegir Insights delayed several markets and volumes which has resulted in a reduced accumulated build out by approximately 4 GW in 2030, 12 GW in 2035, and 36 GW in the 2040 Central Case scenario.
The H2 2025 Global Market Forecast reflects Aegir Insights’ best assessment of likely accumulated build-out, based on constraints identified through both bottom-up and top-down perspectives.
Aegir Insights’ Central Case is considered as the realistic scenario to reflect the constraints currently facing the industry and impact the long-term development of offshore wind. It remains more conservative compared to similar views from other intelligence providers.
Aegir Insights’ clients have access to our updated Global Market Forecast on the Aegir Platform, as well as a new Insights report presenting some of the key takeaways from the Market Forecast in an easy-to-digest format.
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