The monopile market is oversupplied which increases competition and need for data-driven long-term planning for offshore wind foundation suppliers.
Several European manufacturers are scaling up their manufacturing capacity for offshore wind. At the same time, Chinese suppliers have entered the global monopile market, creating fierce competition that has been exacerbated by project delays and unsuccessful auctions in recent years, contributing to lower demand, most significantly in the late 2020s.
In parallel, the demand for bigger monopiles is expected to grow making it essential for foundation suppliers to adapt to be well-placed not only in terms of capacity, but also when it comes to capabilities.
Looking into the future demand, Aegir Insights has modeled scenarios for demand across offshore wind foundation categories to investigate the match between demand and capabilities in the future. A recent analysis uses a baseline scenario with 15 MW turbines, zoomed in on the period from 2030 to 2035.
Aegir clients can explore the same view across other foundation types, for the full period towards 2040 and in a scaled turbine scenario.
🔹Under the announced projects Baseline Scenario (15 MW), the XXL (~1.500-2.000 tons) foundation category accounts for most of the volume across the years with a stable share above 50%, while XXXL (+2.000 tones) make up to 30% of the demand. While XL foundations only play a small part.
🔹The return of XL monopiles in 2034-2035 is driven by the entry of new markets, where sites in shallower waters are expected be the first to be prioritized for development.
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