March has been a busy month at Aegir Insights. From Estonia to Japan and the UK, our team has been out connecting with the industry and engaging on the topics shaping offshore wind today.
REI offshore wind seminar – Tokyo, Japan
Rikke Winther Nørgaard presented findings from a joint cost study with the Renewable Energy Institute / 自然エネルギー財団 (REI), examining CAPEX differences between fixed-bottom wind in Japan and North Sea Europe at COD 2030 and cost-out potential through to COD 2040. A clear cost-reduction journey exists in Japan, if the right incentives are introduced now: port infrastructure and local supply chain investment, exclusivity rights enabling scale, and a predictable auction pipeline.
Download the full report here.
17th Asia Offshore Wind Day & WindExpo 2026 – Tokyo, Japan
Simon Engfred delivered a keynote at the Asia Wind Energy Association's 17th Asia Offshore Wind Day, and Rikke Nørgaard joined the Leaders Panel later in the day, sharing perspectives on the future outlook for offshore wind in Japan. Global offshore wind capacity is set to more than double by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, with Asia-Pacific forecast to exceed 50 GW by 2040. Japan faces a cost premium over Europe, but CAPEX could fall if policy and supply chains develop as needed. Matthew Delany was also on the ground at WindExpo, meeting existing and new contacts across the industry.
5th Kuressaare Offshore Wind Conference - Saaremaa, Estonia
Thomas Hwan Jensen presented on financing models for Estonian offshore wind, covering state guarantees, subordinated loans, and a conceptual CfD-state guarantee hybrid. The conclusion: without a merchant hedge, equity IRR still falls below acceptable hurdle rates, and lenders will limit gearing regardless of the guarantee.
The panel broadened the discussion to BESS integration, EU tripartite structures for PPA credit risk, and cross-border arrangements as potential options for Estonia.
RiskPoint Panel & Industry Meetings – London, UK
David Vestergaard Thomsen joined a panel hosted by The RiskPoint Group how today's geopolitical and macroeconomic environment is reshaping risk and investment in offshore wind. Risk has migrated outside the project: into negative price hours, grid connection queues, and business cases dependent on substantial support mechanisms. The case for offshore wind has never been stronger, but making a bankable project has rarely been harder.
Additionally, David and Sebastian Kæmpe Hansen met with EDF power solutions and JERA Nex bp for discussions on the offshore wind landscape, with a focus on commercial strategy and how developers are navigating the more complex environment.
A recurring theme: the sector is still recalibrating, but the fundamentals for offshore wind remain strong.
We are looking forward to re-connecting at WindEurope in Madrid in April 2026. Reach out to meet up or to discuss any of the above topics shaping offshore wind in person.
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