Today is the bid deadline for the 1 GW North Sea Middle and 0.8 GW Hesselø sites in Denmark's offshore wind auction.
While we don't yet know who bid, or how many, our economic assessment of the two sites using Aegir Quant™ points in a clear direction.
Hesselø
Hesselø shows good returns even in our low power price sensitivity and has capacity to absorb residual risks. The main reasons are the significantly larger support budget of DKK 21.9bn (EUR 2.94bn) and a lower minimum capacity of 800 MW, which provides more support per MW than for North Sea Middle. This strongly suggests that we will see bids for this specific site.
North Sea Middle
As opposed to Hesselø, the North Sea Middle site, located in the North Sea, shows returns in the lower end of acceptability in the base case turning to very questionable returns in a low power price scenario. Based on that, the interest could be lower, as bids will require stretched assumptions on hurdle rates and power prices.
In the broader European context, Hesselø sits among the most attractive offshore wind opportunities currently on offer, together with UK’s CfD AR8 and maybe France’s upcoming AO10 auction. Using our financial model Aegir Quant™, we can model auction attractiveness by analyzing expected IRRs under both base and low power price scenarios.
Want to discuss this analysis or the upcoming result?
Europe auctions attractiveness assessment
Back in December 2025, Aegir Insights published an assessment of the attractiveness of upcoming European offshore wind auctions.
In our connected Wavelength webinar, we walk you through upcoming auctions in Europe, providing a clear, data-driven evaluation of their attractiveness.
Learn more about the webinar here.
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