Western offshore wind supply chain capacity constraints could open a door of opportunities for Chinese players for post 2030 COD.
Europe is expected to lead the capacity build-out of offshore wind until end of 2040, however the Western offshore wind supply chain will not be able to answer to the demand and will likely face bottlenecks from around 2030, if sufficient investments into expanding production capacities are not made in time.
The potential supply chain gaps could open the door for non-European manufacturers to step in. What would it mean for the offshore wind build-out if Chinese players are investing in European-based production?
In Aegir Insights' new Insights report, available to our clients, we analyze supply and demand for WTGs and foundations until 2040 based on Aegir's proprietary datasets.
Even in a base case build-out scenario ~47 GW will be added in Europe from today and until 2030 and the number will be significantly higher until 2040. How does the European based supply chain stay ready and competitive?
Reach out to us here and learn more about our supply chain data and insights.
Capacity constraints in the North Sea
The biggest challenge in the wind industry right now is the limited capacity in the offshore wind supply chain and an increased risk profile for financing projects. While this is a global trend, it is particularly evident in the North Sea, where many tenders are occurring simultaneously in the UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.
Denmark has launched the biggest offshore wind tender to date this year, aimed at bringing a whopping 6-10 GW of new capacity online by end of 2030. With neighboring countries, such as the UK, Germany and the Netherlands having similarly high ambitions for 2030, competition for the local Western offshore wind supply chain may be a deciding factor in which projects can actually hit target CODs.
Aegir Insights did an analysis on the needed supply chain capacity for the Danish tender. Read it here.
Aegir Insights' Data & Analytics products
To dive in for deeper insights on the evolving dynamics in the offshore wind supply chain as more and more countries gear up for holding auctions with aggressive COD targets, reach out to us for information on our Data products for offshore wind projects, supply chain and more, as well as our sophisticated commercial toolchain to support your bid strategy and decision making.
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