Who will be the winners in UK’s upcoming CfD AR6 offshore wind auction?

March 12, 2024
 | 
2 min read
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How many of the 10 projects eligible for UK’s AR6 will get CfDs with the 800 mGBP earmarked for offshore wind? And who will the winners be?

Based on our analysis on UK's CfD AR6:

  • If strike prices are close to the administrative ceiling of 73 GBP/MWh (2012 prices), CfD award could be as low as 3 GW – meaning only 3-4 projects would get backing.
  • If CfDs are awarded to a total 5 GW - equivalent to a strike price of 55 GBP/MWh (2012 prices) - 5 projects could receive support.

"When analyzing likely CfD bids, it is important to look beyond pure project economics and site conditions. Many additional factors are influencing a developer’s bid competitiveness, such as return requirements, 'bidding hunger', and operational synergies," says Aegir Head of Research Maria Holm Bohsen.

"The recent turmoil in international offshore wind markets has spurred a change in developer’s strategy, with the focus shifting to mature markets, which includes the UK. It will be interesting to see how this affects bidding aggressiveness and processes in AR6."

Aegir Insights’ clients will have access to our new Market Insights report later this week, providing more context on the upcoming AR6 auction, as well as advanced modelling of all eligible projects.

Wavelength Intelligence Briefing: AR6: Fresh tailwinds – or further crosswinds – for UK offshore?

Join our next 15-minute Wavelength on 18 March at 14:00 CET, when Aegir Insights’ Head of Research Maria Holm Bohsen and Chief Executive Editor Darius Snieckus dive deeper into Aegir’s analysis of the AR6 and discuss whether the coming auction will get the once-leading offshore wind market back on track.​

Aegir Insights' offshore wind intelligence solutions

Aegir Insights' offshore wind intelligence solutions support developers in all stages of their decision-making in competitive auctions with global intelligence and advanced modelling of project economics.

Reach out to us for more information on our new UK AR6 Market Insights report and to discover how a subscription at Aegir Insights can enhance your company's bid competitiveness.

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Aegir Insights provides industry-leading intelligence powered by data science for offshore wind energy developers, governments and financial institutions.

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Denmark


Contact

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CVR no.: 39104792

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