UK CfD AR7 bid analysis: Benchmarking strike prices with Aegir Quant
Update (July 2026): AR7 has concluded. The UK government nearly doubled the fixed-bottom budget from GBP 900m to GBP 1,790m and awarded 8.2 GW of fixed-bottom capacity plus close to 200 MW of floating, the biggest CfD award in UK offshore wind history. Read Aegir Insights’ breakdown of the AR7 results. The bid analysis below is the pre-auction view.
Expectations for the UK CfD Allocation Round 7 (AR7) are high, driven by government signals and a growing pool of eligible fixed-bottom offshore wind projects.
Currently, 8.1 GW of fixed-bottom projects could enter the UK CfD AR7, meaning competition would be limited if the government awards over ~5 GW, as in the previous round. However, potential reforms to the CfD eligibility criteria that are currently being discussed could add ~17 GW of eligible fixed-bottom capacity, turning this Allocation Round into a highly competitive one.
Aegir Quant™ provides clients with advanced bid simulation capabilities – including CfD strike price benchmarking, Monte Carlo uncertainty and option value simulations – in an intuitive and secure environment. Aegir Insights’ clients can access Aegir Quant™ with a custom setup of all AR7 potential projects.
Want to dive deeper into how Aegir Quant™ features and assumptions can drive AR7 CfD decision-making?
Reach out to us here to book a meeting and get Aegir Insights’ view on the UK CfD market.
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