Offshore wind capacity forecast to 2040: What moved this quarter
The Q3 2026 offshore wind outlook remains broadly unchanged after a quiet summer
Aegir Insights' Q3 2026 Global Market Forecast Central Case sees cumulative offshore wind capacity outside China rise from around 55 GW at the end of 2026 to 90 GW by 2030, 171 GW by 2035 and 260 GW by 2040.
What changed in the offshore wind market outlook this quarter
The 2040 total is broadly unchanged from our Q2 2026 view, but the regional mix has shifted:
Asia Pacific (excluding China): up 2.2 GW to 57 GW by 2040, the largest upward revision this quarter, driven mainly by South Korea's new auction roadmap.
Americas: down 1.0 GW to 22 GW by 2040.
Europe: essentially unchanged at 181 GW by 2040, around 70% of the global total outside China.
Our Central Case reflects the likely aggregated build-out based on project-level likelihood of success, market conditions and supply chain constraints.
Clients can dive deeper into the full forecast on the Aegir Intelligence Platform, with year-by-year build-out to 2040 by region and market.
Reach out to Matthew Delany for access.
Aegir Insights' Market Forecast methodology
As ambitions, targets and global development pipelines continue to grow, a realistic understanding of development outlook will help inform strategies around project and portfolio development in the broader market context.
Aegir Insights continuously analyzes the development of global offshore wind markets to assess activity, maturity, opportunities and risks globally. Our Global Offshore Wind Market Forecast is based on in-depth analysis of individual projects, markets, regional and global factors such as auction updates, supply chain development, route-to-market constraints, grid infrastructure, and permitting. This is utilized to build forecasts that enable better understanding of the market and planning for developers, OEMs, governments, advisors and financial institutions aiming to invest in offshore wind. Forecasting the short-, medium- and long-term development of the market must consider both 1) the viability of projects from a bottom-up perspective, and 2) top-down constraints on development.
Demand and supply bottlenecks for key components are assessed separately in Aegir Insights' dedicated analysis. Demand is based on Aegir Insights' Market Forecast, while supply reflects existing manufacturing capacity, new facilities and announced expansions.