Offshore wind capacity forecast to 2040: What moved this quarter
Aegir Insights' Q2 2026 Global Market Forecast puts offshore wind at 91 GW of installed capacity in 2030, 173 GW in 2035 and 259 GW in 2040, excluding China. This represents a six-fold increase from today's installed base, and an average of 14.5 GW added every year until 2040 (excl. China). Measured from the end of 2026, that is an 11.5% compound annual growth rate.
The near-term build-out is broadly unchanged, with revisions concentrated in the mid-to-late 2030s.
What changed in the offshore wind market outlook this quarter
Where revenue support firmed up, the forecast increased.
Across markets, France was the biggest increase in our forecast, due to AO10 targeting around 10 GW of awarded capacity as well as France's improved support scheme.
Where projects stay merchant, the forecast decreased.
The Nordics saw the biggest decrease due to weak project economics and uncertainty over contract terms. Sweden and Finland have no support mechanism in sight, and merchant projects do not clear at current power prices.
Where projects stay policy-exposed, the forecast decreased.
The United States carries the largest decrease in our forecast in the mid-to-late 2030s, due to the continued focus on reimbursing previous lease payments for forfeited leases, as well as delays in leasing and permitting and weaker investment confidence.
Read together, these changes represent a modest recalibration of Aegir Insights' long-term expectations rather than a shift in the near-term market outlook.
Aegir Insights tracks the offshore wind build-out by country and by year across three scenarios, with each project carrying its own likelihood of success and modeled project economics. The full forecast, including the annual profile and the Low and High cases, can be accessed by clients on the Aegir Platform. Reach out for a walk-through.
Aegir Insights' Market Forecast methodology
As ambitions, targets and global development pipelines continue to grow, a realistic understanding of development outlook will help inform strategies around project and portfolio development in the broader market context.
Aegir Insights continuously analyzes the development of global offshore wind markets to assess activity, maturity, opportunities and risks globally. Our Global Offshore Wind Market Forecast is based on in-depth analysis of individual projects, markets, regional and global factors such as auction updates, supply chain development, route-to-market constraints, grid infrastructure, and permitting. This is utilized to build forecasts that enable better understanding of the market and planning for developers, OEMs, governments, advisors and financial institutions aiming to invest in offshore wind. Forecasting the short-, medium- and long-term development of the market must consider both 1) the viability of projects from a bottom-up perspective, and 2) top-down constraints on development.
Demand and supply bottlenecks for key components are assessed separately in Aegir Insights' dedicated analysis. Demand is based on Aegir Insights' Market Forecast, while supply reflects existing manufacturing capacity, new facilities and announced expansions.