UK AR8 onshore: The curious case of the sticky CfD prices
Onshore wind auction prices are falling across Europe, but not in the UK. Germany's volume-weighted awards are down 27% from their 2023 level, France's latest auction cleared 12% below its 2024 peak, and the UK's onshore wind CfD clearing prices have stayed flat for three consecutive rounds. Prices do not fall everywhere for the same reason, and AR8, with bidding in October 2026, will show whether the continental declines carry across the Channel.
How far have onshore wind auction prices fallen in Germany and France?
Germany: Volume-weighted awards fell in seven consecutive rounds, from 73.3 EUR/MWh across 2023 to 53.4 EUR/MWh across 2026. The 2026 rounds were 2.4x oversubscribed against the volume offered.
France: The latest period cleared 12% below the 2024 peak, in an auction nearly 3x oversubscribed against target.
The two markets share a pattern: Record oversubscription. When far more auction-ready capacity shows up than the round can award, projects compete on price, and clearing levels fall.
Why have UK onshore wind CfD prices stayed flat?
The UK's onshore wind CfD clearing prices moved within 1% across AR5, AR6 and AR7a, a band of less than GBP 2/MWh once adjusted to 2024 prices.
There is a structural reason the UK picture is harder to read: DESNZ publishes no bid volumes. In Germany and France, oversubscription is part of the public auction record, so competitive pressure is observable. In the UK, the depth of the auction-ready pipeline sits outside the auction record entirely. Flat prices are the fact; whether they reflect thin competition, disciplined bidding, or a pipeline waiting for AR8 is exactly the question.
Do financing and supply chain costs explain the gap?
No. Project-tenor lending conditions were relatively flat in all three markets, and reported turbine OEM average selling prices have also remained relatively flat, though that data may lag market pricing. If input costs moved broadly together, they cannot explain prices falling 27% in one market and holding still in another.
That points the explanation toward market drivers instead: Competition for the awarded volume, and what happens to projects after the award, are expected to play the larger role.
What does this mean for UK AR8?
AR8 will be the defining signal for European wind sector recovery: Whether the German and French declines carry across, or stop at the Channel.
This analysis is the first in a series of Aegir insights running up to UK AR8 bidding in October 2026. The projects behind the pipeline question sit in the Aegir renewables project database, covering onshore wind alongside offshore. For the offshore side of the round, see what AR7 told us about the upcoming AR8.
Where to read the full analysis
Aegir Platform users can read the full analysis and the underlying data, including the macro and market driver screen behind the divergence.
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Key questions on UK AR8 onshore pricing
How much have German onshore wind auction prices fallen?
Volume-weighted awards fell 27%, from 73.3 EUR/MWh across 2023 to 53.4 EUR/MWh across 2026, over seven consecutive rounds. The 2026 rounds were 2.4x oversubscribed.
What did France's latest onshore wind auction clear at?
The latest period cleared 12% below the 2024 peak, and was nearly 3x oversubscribed against target.
Have UK onshore wind CfD prices changed since AR5?
Barely. AR5, AR6 and AR7a cleared inside a GBP 2/MWh band, adjusted to 2024 prices.
Why is UK CfD competition hard to measure?
DESNZ publishes no bid volumes, so oversubscription, the direct competition signal visible in German and French auction records, cannot be observed in the UK.
When does UK AR8 bidding take place?
October 2026.