After several delays, the second offshore wind auction in Ireland, the Offshore Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (ORESS) 2.1, will be launched on 22 September 2025. The auction will award support and site exclusivity to the Tonn Nua site (900 MW) on the country's southern coast, targeting delivery in the early 2030s.
Before and after the first offshore wind auction, ORESS 1, a lot of attention was directed towards the Irish market. Many projects were announced under the open door-scheme, and six sites were progressed through ORESS 1 with four succeeding in securing support contracts, leaving two under merchant terms.
While the ORESS 1 auction concluded in 2023, today’s high-cost reality poses the question: Do Ireland and ORESS 2.1 remain an attractive opportunity for developers?
Aegir Insights’ clients have access to a new Insights report, diving into the upcoming ORESS 2.1 auction, offering:
🔹 An overview of the ORESS 2.1 auction,
🔹 Its support scheme and auction timeline,
🔹 As well as an estimated bid analysis with Monte Carlo simulations using Aegir Quant™ - ideal for assessing competition.
Want to get ready for upcoming auctions?
Reach out to us for a starter kit: deep dive into auction design and timeline, competitor situation and bidding differentiation.
Monte Carlo simulation in Aegir Quant
Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used analytical method, leveraging computational power to simulate and assess future performance. The simulation output is often presented as histograms that illustrate the frequency of various outcomes. This provides both a visual and quantitative understanding of multiple interacting factors. Cross-industry examples include estimating future energy generation under variable weather conditions, predicting oil and gas reservoir performance, or evaluating portfolio risk and option pricing in finance.
Monte Carlo simulations can be essential when managing uncertainty, identifying risks, and optimizing strategies.
Aegir Quant™ features full Monte Carlo simulation. Clients with access to Aegir Quant™ can leverage pre-modeled cases for all offshore wind projects globally and on-call sparring with industry experts. Reach out to get a demo of the Monte Carlo simulation center in Aegir Quant™.
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