Aegir Insights has published its Q1 2026 Global Offshore Wind Market Forecast update.
In Aegir Insights' Q1 2026 Market Forecast update, global offshore wind capacity (ex-China) is forecast to reach 92 GW by 2030 and 262 GW by 2040 in the Central Case, representing a six-fold increase from today's installed base.
The update reflects a modest near-term downgrade driven primarily by Europe, where the ongoing auction reset is creating a pipeline gap through 2030. The long-term picture is largely unchanged, with cumulative capacity by 2040 revised down by only 1.3 GW compared to our last forecast.
Some of the key findings:
🔹 Near-term build-out to 2030 has been revised down, with delays in Germany, the UK, Poland, and Belgium being the primary drivers.
🔹 However, we are expecting a post-2030 recovery. Annual installations are expected to accelerate from just over 10 GW/year in 2026-2030 to an average of 17 GW/year through 2031-2040.
🔹 Post-2030 upward revisions across several European markets, as well as Japan and Canada are outweighed by US policy uncertainty and weak returns on unsupported German sites.
The full Q1 2026 Offshore Wind Market Forecast is available to subscribing clients on the Aegir Intelligence Platform.
In the Global Offshore Wind Market Forecast, Aegir Insights examines annual offshore wind build-out based on in-depth analysis of individual projects, markets, regional and global factors such as supply chain development, route-to-market constraints, grid infrastructure, and permitting. The Global Market Forecast reflects Aegir Insights’ best assessment of likely accumulated build-out, based on constraints identified through both bottom-up and top-down perspectives.
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